"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong" Arthur C. Clarke
In 2016 Michael Gove was pilloried for saying “people in this country have had enough of experts”. But I know what he meant. The problem arises when you ask a distinguished man (it is always a man - sorry ladies, transgenders and not sures) for an opinion on future events vaguely related to his field of expertise.
For example, if in 1895 you had asked the Astronomer Royal to calculate the distance to the sun, you would have got an informed and accurate reply. But if you had asked him about the possibility of flight, he would (and did) reply that "heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible".
Simlarly, when I asked a suveyor in the 1970s what a beautiful stone cottage on a hillside in Yorkshire was worth he replied "about £100". And that was a correct response - see Valuers above. My mistake was to confuse current value with future value. In 2003 a major shopping mall in Kirkcaldy was worth about £10m (and was sold for that). In 2019 it was worth about £300,000 (and was sold for that).
And the closer you are to your field the more likely you are to be wrong - experts in nuclear fusion probably genuinely believe that it will be a major source of pollution free power by 2040 (ie in twenty years time). But they are the last people to ask. The question should really be addressed to an imaginative and experienced person with a lot of technological expertise and a track record of making the right bets (the best evidence for which being serious wealth built up over many years - not just one big lucky bet). In other words, Warren Buffett. Or me if you want the cheap version.
Bob Cory
Modified on 26/10/2019 at 10:57:46 by ℗ Bob Cory